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Work in progress:

Emmerling, J., Furceri D., Libano Monteiro F., Loungani P., Ostry J.D., Pizzuto P., and M. Tavoni. (2021): Will the Economic Impact of COVID-19 Persist? Prognosis from 21st Century Pandemics, IMF Working Papers. Washington, D.C: IMF, 20 April 2021.


Harmsen, Mathijs, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Gunnar Luderer, Ryna Cui, Olivier Dessens, et al. (2021): Integrated Assessment Model Diagnostics: Key Indicators and Model Evolution, Environmental Research Letters, April 2021. 10.1088/1748-9326/abf964.

Emmerling J., Navarro P., and M. R. Sisco (2021): Subjective Well-Being at the Macro Level - Empirics and Future Scenarios, Social Indicators Research, 13 April 2021. 10.1007/s11205-021-02670-2.

Emmerling, J. and M. Tavoni (2021): Representing Inequalities in Integrated Assessment Modeling of Climate Change, One Earth, 4, no. 2 (19 February 2021): 177-80, 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.01.013.

Keppo, I., Butnar I., Bauer N., Caspani M., Edelenbosch O., Emmerling J., Fragkos P., Guivarch C., Harmsen M., Lefevre L., Le Gallic T., Leimbach M., McDowall W., Mercure J.-F., Schaeffer R., Trutnevyte E., and F. Wagner (2021): Exploring the Possibility Space: Taking Stock of the Diverse Capabilities and Gaps in Integrated Assessment Models, Environmental Research Letters, 2021, 10.1088/1748-9326/abe5d8.

Fofrich, R.A., Tong D., Calvin K.V., de Boer H.S., Emmerling J., Fricko O., Fujimori S., Luderer G., Rogelj J., and S.J. Davis (2020): Early Retirement of Power Plants in Climate Mitigation Scenarios, Environmental Research Letters, 2020, 10.1088/1748-9326/ab96d3.

Berger L. and J. Emmerling (2020): Welfare as Equity Equivalents, Journal of Economic Surveys, online first, 1-26, 10.1111/joes.12368 (Working Paper version:

Malik A., Bertram C., Despres J., Emmerling J., Fujimori S., Garg A., Kriegler E., Luderer G., Mathur R., Roelfsema M., Shekhar S., Vishwanathan S., and Z. Vrontisi (2020): Reducing Stranded Assets through early action in the Indian power sector, Environmental Research Letters. Online first, 10.1088/1748-9326/ab8033

Roelfsema M., van Soest H.L., Harmsen M., van Vuuren D.P., Bertram C., den Elzen M., Höhne N., Iacobuta G., Krey V., Kriegler E., Luderer G., Riahi K., Ueckerdt F., Després J., Drouet L., Emmerling J., Frank S., Fricko O., Gidden M., Humpenöder F., Huppmann D., Fujimori S., Fragkiadakis K., Gi K., Keramidas K., Köberle A.C., Reis L.A., Rochedo P., Schaeffer R., Oshiro K., Vrontisi Z., Chen W., Iyer G.C., Edmonds J., Kannavou M., Jiang K., Mathur R., Safonov G., and S.S. Vishwanathan (2020): Taking Stock of National Climate Policies to Evaluate Implementation of the Paris Agreement, Nature Communications, 11, no. 1 (29 April 2020): 1-12. 10.1038/s41467-020-15414-6

Antonelli C., Coromaldi M., Dasgupta S., Emmerling J., and S. Shayegh (2020): Climate Impacts on Nutrition and Labor Supply Disentangled — an Analysis for Rural Areas of Uganda, Environment and Development Economics, 1-26. 10.1017/S1355770X20000017

Jewell, J., Emmerling J., Vinichenko V., Bertram C., Berger L., Daly H.E., Keppo I., Krey V., Gernaat D., Fragkiadakis K., McCollum D., Paroussas L., Riahi K., Tavoni M., and D. van Vuuren (2020): Reply to: Why Fossil Fuel Producer Subsidies Matter, Nature (Matters Arising), 578, no. 7793 (February 2020): E5-7. 10.1038/s41586-019-1921-9

Emmerling, J., Kornek U., Bosetti V., and K. Lessmann (2020): Climate Thresholds and Heterogeneous Regions: Implications for Coalition Formation, The Review of International Organizations, January 16, 2020. 10.1007/s11558-019-09370-0

Emmerling J., Drouet L., van der Wijst K., Van Vuuren D., Bosetti V., and M. Tavoni (2019): The role of the discount rate for emission pathways and negative emissionsEnvironmental Research Letters, 14 (August 20, 2019): 1–11. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab3cc9

Fujimori, S., Hasegawa T., Krey V., Riahi K., Bertram C., Bodirsky B.L., Bosetti V., Callen J., Després J., Doelman J., Drouet L., Emmerling J., Frank S., Fricko O., Havlik P., Humpenöder F., Koopman J., van Meijl H., Ochi Y., Popp A., Schmitz A., Takahashi K., and D. van Vuuren (2019): A Multi-Model Assessment of Food Security Implications of Climate Change MitigationNature Sustainability, February 14, 2019. 10.1038/s41893-019-0286-2

van den Berg N.J., van Soest H.L., Hof A.F., den Elzen M.G.J., van Vuuren D.P., Chen W., Drouet L., Emmerling J., Fujimori S., Höhne N., Köberle A.C., McCollum D., Schaeffer R., Shekhar S., Vishwanathan S. S., Vrontisi Z., and K. Blok (2019): Implications of Various Effort-Sharing Approaches for National Carbon Budgets and Emission PathwaysClimatic Change, Vol. 2, No. 5 (May 13, 2019), 386-396. 10.1007/s10584-019-02368-y

Anthoff D. and J. Emmerling (2019): Inequality and the Social Cost of CarbonJournal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, Vol. 6, No. 2 (March 2019), 29-59. 10.1086/701900

Emmerling J., and M. Tavoni (2018): Exploration of the Interactions between Mitigation and Solar Radiation Management in Cooperative and Non-Cooperative International Governance SettingsGlobal Environmental Change, Vol. 53 (November 1, 2018), 244–51. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.10.006

Reis, L.A., Drouet L., van Dingenen R., and J. Emmerling (2018): Future Global Air Quality Indices under Different Socioeconomic and Climate AssumptionsSustainability, 10, 3645. 10.3390/su10103645

Manoussi V., Xepapadeas A., and J. Emmerling (2018): Climate Engineering under Deep UncertaintyJournal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 94, September 2018, 207-224. 10.1016/j.jedc.2018.06.003

Emmerling J. (2018): Sharing of Climate Risks across World RegionsClimate Change Economics, Vol. 9, Issue 3, 1-19. 10.1142/S2010007818500070

McCollum D., Wilson C., Bevione M., Carrara S., Edelenbosch O.Y., Emmerling J., Guivarch C., Karkatsoulis P., Keppo I., Krey V., Lin Z., Ó Broin E., Paroussos L., Pettifor H., Ramea K., Riahi K., Sano F., Rodriguez B.S., and D. van Vuuren (2018): Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles, Nature Energy, Vol. 3, August 2018, 664-47310.1038/s41560-018-0195-z

Luderer G., Vrontisi Z., Bertram C., Edelenbosch O., Pietzcker R., Rogelj J., Sytze De Boer H., Drouet L., Emmerling J., Fricko O., Fujimori S., Havlík P., Iyer G., Kimon Keramidas, Alban Kitous, Pehl M., Krey V., Riahi K., Saveyn B., Tavoni M., van Vuuren D., and E. Kriegler (2018): Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5–2 °C pathwaysNature Climate Change, Vol. 8, 626–633. 10.1038/s41558-018-0198-6

McCollum D., Zhou W., Bertram C., de Boer H.S., Bosetti V., Busch S., Despres J., Drouet L., Emmerling J., Fay M., Fricko O., Fujimori S., Gidden M., Harmsen M., Huppmann D., Iyer G., Krey V., Kriegler E., Nicolas C., Pachauri S., Parkinson S., Poblete-Cazenave M., Rafaj P., Rao N., Rozenberg J., Schmitz A., Schoepp W., van Vuuren D., and K. Riahi (2018): Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development GoalsNature Energy, Vol. 3, July 2018, 589-599. 10.1038/s41560-018-0179-z

Vinca A., Emmerling J., and M. Tavoni (2018): Bearing the Cost of Stored Carbon Leakage, Frontiers in Energy Research, Vol. 6, Art. 40, 1-11. 10.3389/fenrg.2018.00040

Rogelj J., Popp A., Calvin K., Luderer G., Emmerling J., Gernaat D., Fujimori S., Strefler J., Hasegawa T., Marangoni G., Krey V., Kriegler E., Riahi K., van Vuuren D., Doelman J., Drouet L., Edmonds J., Fricko O., Harmsen M., Havlík P., Humpenöder F., Stehfest E., and M. Tavoni (2018): Scenarios towards limiting global-mean temperature increase below 1.5°CNature Climate Change, Vol. 8(3), March 2018, 325-332. 10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3

Jewell J., McCollum D., Emmerling J., Bertram C., Gernaat D., Krey V., Paroussos L., Berger L., Fragkiadakis K., Keppo I., Failali N., Tavoni M., van Vuuren D., Vinichenko V., and K. Riahi (2018): Limited climate benefits from fuel subsidy removal except in energy exporting regionsNature, 554, No. 7691 (February 2018), 229-233. 10.1038/nature25467

Emmerling J. (2018): Discounting and intragenerational equityEnvironment and Development Economics, Vol. 23, Issue 1 (February 2018), 19-36. 10.1017/S1355770X17000365

Emmerling J. and M. Tavoni (2018): Climate Engineering and Abatement: A ‘flat’ Relationship Under UncertaintyEnvironmental and Resource Economics, Vol. 69, No. 2 (February 2018), 395-415. 10.1007/s10640-016-0104-5

Emmerling J., Groom B., and T. Wettingfeld (2017): Discounting and the representative median agentEconomics Letters, Vol. 161, December 2017, 78-81. 10.1016/j.econlet.2017.09.031

Emmerling J. and S. Qari (2017): Car ownership and hedonic adaptationJournal of Economic Psychology, Vol. 61, August 2017, 29-38. 10.1016/j.joep.2017.02.014

Edelenbosch O., van Vuuren D., Bertram C., Carrara S., Emmerling J., Daly H., Kitous, A. McCollum, D., and N. Saadi Failali (2017): Transport fuel demand responses to fuel price and income projections: Comparison of integrated assessment modelsTransportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 55, August 2017, 310-321. 10.1016/j.trd.2017.03.005

van Vuuren D., Riahi K., Calvin K., Dellink R., Emmerling J., Fujimori, S., KC S., Kriegler E., and B. O’Neill (2017): The Shared Socio-economic Pathways: Trajectories for human development and global environmental changeGlobal Environmental Change, Vol. 42, January 2017, 148-152. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.009

Riahi K., van Vuuren D., Kriegler E., Edmonds J., O’Neill B., Fujimori S., Bauer N., Calvin K., Dellink R., Fricko O., Lutz W., Popp A., Crespo Cuaresma J., KC S., Leimbach M., Jiang L., Kram T., Rao S., Emmerling J., Ebi K., Hasegawa T., Havlik P., Humpenöder F., Aleluia Da Silva L., Smith S., Stehfest E., Bosetti V., Eom J., Gernaat D., Masui T., Rogelj J., Strefler S., Drouet L., Krey V., Luderer G., Harmsen M., Takahashi K., Baumstark L., Doelman J., Kainuma M., Klimont Z., Marangoni G., Lotze-Campen H., Obersteiner M., Tabeau A., and M. Tavoni (2017), The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their Energy, Land Use, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Implications: An OverviewGlobal Environmental Change, Vol. 42, January 2017, 153-168. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009

Bauer N., Calvin K., Emmerling J., Fricko O., Fujimori S., Hilaire J., Eom J., Krey V., Kriegler E., Mouratiadou I., Sytze de Boer H., van den Berg M., Carrara S., Daioglou V., Drouet L., Edmonds J., Gernaat D., Havlik P., Johnson N., Klein D., Kyle P., Marangoni G., Masui T., Pietzcker R., Strubegger M., Wise M., Riahi K., van Vuuren D. (2017): Shared Socio‚ÄźEconomic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the NarrativesGlobal Environmental Change, Vol. 42, January 2017, 316-330. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.07.006

Kriegler E., Bauer B., Popp A., Humpenöder F., Leimbach M., Strefler J., Baumstark L., Bodirsky B.-L., Hilaire J., Klein D., Mouratiadou I., Weindl I., Bertram C., Dietrich J.-P., Luderer G., Pehl M., Pietzcker R., Piontek F., Lotze-Campen H., Biewald A., Bonsch M., Giannousakis A., Kreidenweis U., Müller C., Rolinski S., Schultes A., Schwanitz J., Stevanovic M., Calvin K., Emmerling J., Fujimori S., and O. Edenhofer (2017): Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): an energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st centuryGlobal Environmental Change, Vol. 42, January 2017, 297-315. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015

Berger L., Emmerling J., and M. Tavoni (2017): Managing Catastrophic Climate Risks Under Model Uncertainty AversionManagement Science, Vol. 63, No. 3, 749-765. 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2365

Drouet L. and J. Emmerling (2016): Climate policy under socio-economic scenario uncertaintyEnvironmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 79, May 2016, 334-342. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.02.010

Lessmann, K., Kornek U., Bosetti V., Dellink R., Emmerling J., Eyckmans J., Nagashima M., Weikard H.-P., and Z. Yang (2015): The Stability and Effectiveness of Climate Coalitions: A Comparative Analysis of Multiple Integrated Assessment ModelsEnvironmental and Resource Economics, Vol. 62, No. 4, 811–36. 10.1007/s10640-015-9886-0

Other publications:

Tavoni M., Bosetti V., Shayegh S., Drouet L., Emmerling J., Fuss S., Goeschl T., Guivarch C., Lontzek T., Manoussi V., Moreno-Cruz J., Muri H., Quaas M., and W. Rickels (2017): Challenges and opportunities for integrated modeling of climate engineering, FEEM Nota di lavoro 038.2017, link.

Dennig F. and J. Emmerling (2017): A Note on Optima With Negishi Weights, CFI Working Paper. Princeton University, April 9, 2017.

Reis L.A., Emmerling J., Tavoni M., and D. Raitzer (2016): The Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Developing Asia, ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 504, December 2016, Asian Development Bank, Mandaluyong City, Philippines.

Book Climate Justice and Geoengineering Emmerling J. and M. Tavoni (2016): Geoengineering and Climate Change Mitigation: Trade-offs and Synergies as Foreseen by Integrated Assessment Models, in: “Climate Justice and Geoengineering” (edited by Christopher J. Preston), Rowman and Littlefield International (RLI), London, September 2016,, ISBN: 978-1-78348-636-6

Emmerling J., Drouet L., Aleluia Reis L., Bevione M., Berger L., Bosetti V., Carrara S., De Cian E., De Maere D'Aertrycke G., Longden T., Malpede M., Marangoni G., Sferra F., Tavoni M., Witajewski-Baltvilks J., Havlik P. (2016): The WITCH 2016 Model - Documentation and Implementation of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, FEEM Nota di Lavoro 42.2016. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, 2016.

Emmerling J. (2015): What keeps you from acting rationally?, blog article on COBHAM,, September 2015.

Emmerling J. (2015): Uncertainty and Natural Resources - Prudence facing Doomsday, 2015, FEEM Nota di Lavoro 049.2015,

Emmerling J. (2015): Climate Policy Negotiations – Insights from Game Theory, in: CTN - From theory to application, 8, September 2015, available at:

Emmerling J. and M. Tavoni (2013): Is Geoengineering a Viable Option for Dealing with Climate Change?, April 17, 2013, Review of Environment, Energy and Economics (link) and

Emmerling J. (2012): Targeting cash transfers in Mali – A proxy means test approach, The World Bank, 2012, Washington, D.C.,

Emmerling, J. (2011): Essays in Environmental Economics and the Role of Risk, Inequality, and Time, Ph.D. thesis, Toulouse School of Economics.

Country reports on Albania and FYR Macedonia (with P. Sanfey), in: Transition Report 2007: People in transition, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2007, pp.94-97 & 130-133, link.

DIE Study No. 26 Chahoud T., Emmerling J., Kolb D., Kubina I., Repinski G., and C. Schlaeger (2007): Corporate Social and Environmental Responsibility in India – Assessing the Global Compact’s Role, DIE Study No. 26, Bonn, ISBN: 978-3-88985-336-3.

Emmerling J. (2006): Metrology for the Natural Gas Sector – Triangular approaches for Latin America, Washington D.C., link.

Emmerling J. (2005): The natural resource curse – an economic policy and political economic analysis, Free University Berlin, Master’s Thesis (in German), link.

Emmerling J. (2004): Political Determinants of Currency Crises – Evidence from four Countries, DIW, Berlin, link.

Emmerling J. (2003): Die Auswirkungen der Dollarisierung auf den produktiven Sektor, ILDIS Report, Quito, link1/link2.